This Winter I Hear the Drumming, Vote Fraud in Ohio
The Gun is Smoking - 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data. NEDA's analysis provides virtually irrefutable evidence of vote miscount.
(PRWEB) January 17, 2006 -- There is significant controversy about whether the 2004 presidential election was conducted fairly and its votes counted correctly. According to results of the major national election exit poll conducted for the National Election Pool by Edison/Mitofsky (E/M), Kerry won Ohio's pivotal vote, though the official tally gave the state, and thus the presidency, to Bush. The conduct of Ohio's election was formally debated by Congress in January 2005.
The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) is the first mathematical team to release a valid scientific analysis of the precinct-level 2004 Ohio presidential exit poll data "The Gun is Smoking: 2004 Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf. NEDA's analysis provides significant evidence of an outcome-altering vote miscount.
The analysis is based on the most accurate statistical method yet devised for determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or vote count manipulation cause the discrepancies between exit polls and official vote tallies. This analysis method was made public recently by NEDA in "Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy" available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit-Poll-Analysis.pdf
Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohio's 11,360 precincts. At least 40% of Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant differences between Kerry's exit poll percent and official vote count percent. 35% of these exit polls overestimated the Kerry official vote share. This is five times the number expected. Three of the most glaring examples are:
1. In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating a 58% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this occurring due to chance.
2. In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents, Kerry's official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating a 56% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.
3. In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.
There are also two precincts where the Bush official vote count is significantly less than the Bush exit poll share. The number of significant discrepancies and the pattern of Ohio's discrepancy shown in the NEDA report provide strong support for the conclusion that vote count errors converted a Kerry win to a Bush win.
New electronic voting equipment without voter verified paper ballots, implemented under the 2002 Help America Vote Act, makes it easier for a small number of people to manipulate vote counts and nearly impossible to independently audit vote count accuracy. Virtually every county in America today publicly reports its vote counts in a way that hides evidence of miscounts. This allows those with access (whether authorized or not) to manipulate or make mistakes in vote counting with negligible possibility of detection.
Without accurate elections, America is not a democracy. NEDA urges the media to publicize the results of this report and its recommendations, in order to return to the American people their right to determine the country's leaders.
This is a bombshell, and the silence from the media and most of the blogosphere, for that matter, is a national disgrace.
posted by spooked at 10:15 AM
5 Comments:
Just a quick question about all this exit poll whining. Why even wait for the final count? Why not just conduct an election and name winners based on exit polls? Sounds like that is what you want and are claiming.
Better yet, why even wait for a specified election day? Why not just declare a winner based on internet poll data 2 weeks before the election date?
Who gives a flying f*ck what exit polls say? I sure as hell don't. It is a *sampling* of those individuals who choose to talk to the poll taker. I have never talked to a exit poll taker, even though in both the 2000 and 2004 elections they were outside the polling station. Guess my opinion doesn't count when we are talking about basing elections on "exit polls".
Guess I shouldn't be surprised, though, since with your current and future platform, that WOULD be the only way you morons would get into power - an EXIT POLL win!
"Yay! We won the exit poll! We get to be President!"
So does this method change all the past cheating? e.g. chicago '60s elections, or do you just suggest that this one occurrance, if accurate, should be the model? So far two of two comments have concluded you are nuts...does that make it so? Stats don't lie right (or left)
I see we're again blessed with the usual learned & sagacious insight from the resident bush whore: pinch.
:)
Just like that pest you knew in Grade School...some people just continually show up where they're not welcome/wanted. :-P
Hi Rob!
Anon-- I'm not clear on what your point is.
Pinch-- you are so amazingly clueless. You just don't fucking get it, do you?
Its apparent I get it much more than you do.
You didn't answer my question. Who cares about exit polls? If they are so indicative of indicidual votes, why not save a bunch of money and just declare a winner based on exit polls?
You seem to think that exit polls are some sort of inviolate, perfect reflections of how EVERYONE votes - and that cannot be farther from the truth.
THAT is the reason that these exit poll whinings are not showing up on anyone's rader screen. As I said before, it is simply a reflection of how THOSE WHO REPLIED TO A CANVASSER outside a voting site voted - it has absolutely nothing to do with accurate numbers, demographics, voting trends, anything.
Exit polls are the creation of the media and specific political entities to try and get NEWS NOW(!) and trends rather than wait for the regular poll results.
Yeah, I do get it.
So...answer the question, if you can. Who cares about exit polls and why would they be an accurate relection of votes if everyone does not reply to a poll taker?
Post a Comment
<< Home