Operation Iraqi Liberation, umm I mean, Operation Iraqi Freedom
Let's review the war.
The reasons for the war were: primarily to remove the threat of WMD in the hands of Saddam Hussein, but there was also a case made for freeing Iraqis from a "brutal" dictator. There was also a case made for freeing Iraq's oil from Saddam which would lower oil prices.
The administration batted .333 there. Good in baseball, not great in politics.
The war itself was predicted to be short and fairly easy. We would be greeted as liberators. There was no mention of a long guerilla war or insurgency. There were no predictions about casualties. There was no clear policy set on how long we would stay in Iraq.
Of course the initial invasion was fairly easy. But now we know that was because much of the army melted away and many of them re-emerged as the insurgency. There were even reports before the war that this was Saddam's plan, which makes sense. Clearly Iraq could not beat the US in a straight up war-- but they could grind down the US in a long insurgency.
So the administration batted .500 there. The initial invasion WAS easy, but they clearly were not planning on a major insurgency developing. So batting .500 is fine if you don't mind the 1500 US soldiers killed, the thousands wounded and the unknown nmbers of Iraqis killed.
Strategically, the Iraq war was a success, and that is the way the Bush administration sees it I'm sure. They got regime change, they got access to Iraq's oil and they set up a major military presence next to Iran. I don't think the US elites care very much about the political situation in Iraq, the instability and the anger at the US. In fact, the anger at the US can be used for launching new synthetic terror attacks, which can be used to further US interests in the middle east.
Politically, the Iraq war was not a success. The US image abroad has been damaged significantly-- between the ham-fisted diplomacy before the war and the prison abuse scandals. Even at home, the war is becoming increasingly unpopular as a grim meat-grinder and a huge waste of tax dollars. Americans aren't happy about their image in the world either, and I think they are mostly confused about what the Iraq war was all about. Clearly Iraq is becoming a political liability and is unsustainable in its current form. This means either there will be some strategic drawing down of troops in the next few years, or heaven forbid, there will be some new 9/11-type attack that will spur on a draft and lead to the invasion of Iran. I suspect the former for now. But if the US economy starts getting into real trouble, and oil prices start rising astronomically, be prepared for the latter.
However, in the big picture, the US established a major military presence in Iraq, and we are there for good. The oil is still in the ground, and we control it. Moreover, we can threaten other neighboring middle eastern countries.
This is the bottom line for the US government. The casualties are relatively insignificant compared to the size of the US.
Thus, strategically, the war was clearly a success.
The reasons for the war were: primarily to remove the threat of WMD in the hands of Saddam Hussein, but there was also a case made for freeing Iraqis from a "brutal" dictator. There was also a case made for freeing Iraq's oil from Saddam which would lower oil prices.
The administration batted .333 there. Good in baseball, not great in politics.
The war itself was predicted to be short and fairly easy. We would be greeted as liberators. There was no mention of a long guerilla war or insurgency. There were no predictions about casualties. There was no clear policy set on how long we would stay in Iraq.
Of course the initial invasion was fairly easy. But now we know that was because much of the army melted away and many of them re-emerged as the insurgency. There were even reports before the war that this was Saddam's plan, which makes sense. Clearly Iraq could not beat the US in a straight up war-- but they could grind down the US in a long insurgency.
So the administration batted .500 there. The initial invasion WAS easy, but they clearly were not planning on a major insurgency developing. So batting .500 is fine if you don't mind the 1500 US soldiers killed, the thousands wounded and the unknown nmbers of Iraqis killed.
Strategically, the Iraq war was a success, and that is the way the Bush administration sees it I'm sure. They got regime change, they got access to Iraq's oil and they set up a major military presence next to Iran. I don't think the US elites care very much about the political situation in Iraq, the instability and the anger at the US. In fact, the anger at the US can be used for launching new synthetic terror attacks, which can be used to further US interests in the middle east.
Politically, the Iraq war was not a success. The US image abroad has been damaged significantly-- between the ham-fisted diplomacy before the war and the prison abuse scandals. Even at home, the war is becoming increasingly unpopular as a grim meat-grinder and a huge waste of tax dollars. Americans aren't happy about their image in the world either, and I think they are mostly confused about what the Iraq war was all about. Clearly Iraq is becoming a political liability and is unsustainable in its current form. This means either there will be some strategic drawing down of troops in the next few years, or heaven forbid, there will be some new 9/11-type attack that will spur on a draft and lead to the invasion of Iran. I suspect the former for now. But if the US economy starts getting into real trouble, and oil prices start rising astronomically, be prepared for the latter.
However, in the big picture, the US established a major military presence in Iraq, and we are there for good. The oil is still in the ground, and we control it. Moreover, we can threaten other neighboring middle eastern countries.
This is the bottom line for the US government. The casualties are relatively insignificant compared to the size of the US.
Thus, strategically, the war was clearly a success.
posted by spooked at 8:28 AM
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