On a Very Simple Level, It Is Still Hard to Believe
that on not one of the four 9/11 flights, did the presence of five young middle eastern men per flight, many of whom had bought one-way tickets, set off alarm bells or red flags. Was there really no one in charge of these flights who saw anything suspicious about these passengers?
After over 50 warnings to the FAA of hijackings no less!
It is just really hard to believe.
And then there is the whole question of whether the hijackers could physically take over the plane with small knives, boxcutters and pepper spray-- without the pilots alerting air traffic control of a hijacking!
In my mind, we have two unlikely events each happening on four different planes, for a total of eight unlikely events-- even before we get to the issue of whether the hijackers could really fly the planes! Let's just assign a probability of 0.40 for each of these things happening (0.4 for five young middle eastern men not alerting attention and 0.4 for them taking over the flights with simple weapons without the pilots alerting ATC)-- that's four in ten times would one of these events happen by chance, just somewhat less than 50%. What therefore is 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4? 0.00066, or 1 in 1525 times would this happen by chance. Less than one in a thousand and this is a VERY conservative estimate!
Is this really so conspiracy-minded to think that just this small part of 9/11 is very very very unlikely?
After over 50 warnings to the FAA of hijackings no less!
It is just really hard to believe.
And then there is the whole question of whether the hijackers could physically take over the plane with small knives, boxcutters and pepper spray-- without the pilots alerting air traffic control of a hijacking!
In my mind, we have two unlikely events each happening on four different planes, for a total of eight unlikely events-- even before we get to the issue of whether the hijackers could really fly the planes! Let's just assign a probability of 0.40 for each of these things happening (0.4 for five young middle eastern men not alerting attention and 0.4 for them taking over the flights with simple weapons without the pilots alerting ATC)-- that's four in ten times would one of these events happen by chance, just somewhat less than 50%. What therefore is 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4? 0.00066, or 1 in 1525 times would this happen by chance. Less than one in a thousand and this is a VERY conservative estimate!
Is this really so conspiracy-minded to think that just this small part of 9/11 is very very very unlikely?
posted by spooked at 11:20 PM
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