Humint Events Online: More People Missed Their Flight on the 9/11 Planes Than Were on the Planes

Sunday, September 28, 2014

More People Missed Their Flight on the 9/11 Planes Than Were on the Planes

Another impressive bit of research from Shoestring 911--
"Over 350 Passengers Canceled Their Reservations or Didn't Show Up for the Hijacked 9/11 Flights"

I posted this on Facebook as sort of a gentle bit of evidence of 9/11 fishiness, and got two assholes who poo-poohed it.  Oddly, one guy claimed there were publicly advertised warnings of terror attacks on domestic flights right before 9/11 (and I'm pretty damn sure there wasn't), and this is why people cancelled their reservations or didn't show. When I challenged him on this, he got cute and claimed I wasn't important to enough to know about these and that he had some inside knowledge. Weird.

The other guy said this level of cancellations was normal and pointed out the Shoestring article didn't talk about normal rates of cancellations/no-shows. While I doubt very much that it is typical that more people cancel/no-show for a flight than make the flight, I did some digging on this.

I found a paper published in the Journal of Air Transport Management, in 2004, titled "PREDICTING AIR TRAVELERS’ NO-SHOW AND STANDBY BEHAVIOR USING PASSENGER AND DIRECTIONAL ITINERARY INFORMATION". The "no show" rate for early 2001 was 6.3%.

The rate of cancellation is more complicated according to this paper, but it does seem to be well below 5% of tickets bought.

The overall % of of no-show's and cancellations for the 9/11 flights was well over 50%.

Wikipedia says:
81 tickected passengers on flight 11
56 tickected passengers on flight 175
58 tickected passengers on flight 77
37 tickected passengers on flight 93
total = 232

+ (at least) 350 no-shows and cancellations = 582

350/582 = 60%

Way higher than any normal model would predict.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

soon after 9/11, a search of the NTSB database revealed that flights AA77 and 11 never even left the ground that day, so any passenger lists re those planes are just bullshit. furthermore, flight UA175 was still in service and not decommissioned until several years later, so any passenger list re that plane is also bullshit.
this was revealed by gerard holmgren.

10:51 AM  
Blogger spooked said...

Yes, this is true. Thanks for the reminder!

Obviously, the plane passenger lists are bogus at some level... still these stats are interesting on a superficial level and possibly useful for casting doubt on the official story..

8:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Airlines could not function with such a large % of cancellations, no shows, flight changes, etc.

One other thing that struck me about the paper on 9/11 blogger was the large no. of people who flew earlier than planned. Surely this is unusual? Changing travel is almost always due to not being able to get away in time, having extra stuff to do, missing a plane because of being caught up in traffic, being held back due to sickness, etc. I'm middle aged and have flown a lot for biz. and tourism, and I can only think of two examples for myself or known family/colleagues/etc. where the person decided to fly a day early - with obviously an uncountable large number of people who arrived late on a subsequent flight, the next day, etc.


7:51 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hmm. i am middle aged myself. however, i do not fly anywhere - if i have to go somewhere in the U.S. i drive my sorry ass vehicle there and back.

9:08 AM  

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