The War Drums Have Started Pounding Very Loudly

... as 2020 begins, the president* launches a unilateral military action to kill the second-most important figure in the Iranian government, the man who commanded the forces that the president* previously confused with our allies, the Kurds, whom he previously sold out on the battlefield.

So no, I have absolutely no confidence that the American government as it is currently run has the vaguest idea what to do next. (snip)

Soleimani is reckoned to have been a combination of Machiavelli, General Giap, Suleiman the Magnificent, and Lex Luthor. Which raises the question, so far unanswered, as to why a man with so many enemies other than the United States, operating with impunity in a volatile part of the world, survived as long as he did. The only logical answer is that these people carefully took the risk-reward calculations to heart and decided that killing Soleimani wasn’t worth what would ensue in the aftermath.

If these calculations were made by the current U.S. administration*, they are not yet obvious.

Instead, the president* tweeted out the image of an American flag.

An official Pentagon briefing pointedly said that the action had been taken at the order of the president*.

The State Department warned Americans to get the hell out of Iraq, but not to come to the massive American embassy. Americans are urged to leave by airplane if possible but, if necessary, to escape by land, although where the hell they’re supposed to go—Syria?—was left unexplained. But the Americans should get out of Iraq, a place that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNN on Friday morning is safer now that Soleimani is dead.

(Pompeo also told CNN that the strike was undertaken to preempt an “imminent threat” to U.S. assets, a threat that Pompeo declined to identify, and, yes, we’ve all seen this movie before.) 

So no, I have no confidence that anyone there can play this game. The president* is an ignoramus with little or no credibility on any issue, let alone war and peace.

His Secretary of State doesn’t seem to have any plan beyond sycophancy.

We are hearing the echoes of 2002 and 2003 rising again, except this time on the part of an inferior breed of con artist. (snip)

The stated policy of this administration* is the utter disruption of the Iranian government as a prelude to regime change. We tried this in the 1950s and Iran got 20 years of a police state. Does anyone seriously believe that an Iranian regime that rises from American policy will have the faintest credibility with most Iranians?

We tried that in Iraq, which is why Qasem Soleiman found such a target-rich environment there. And any split in the current Iranian regime over the now-abandoned nuclear deal likely has been smoothed over. And god only knows what will happen in Iraq as a result of this. This policy is kick-over-the-hornet’s-nest at its worst. Maybe it’s all just to keep John Bolton from testifying to the Senate. That’s as good an explanation as any.

And a reminder of what happened with Iraq will likely happen again:

Considering the Trump Administration is angling to start an illegal, unjustified war with Iran, it's a good time to pass on some advice learned from living through the buildup to the Iraq War.

Things change and they change in a hurry. You need to be ready.

It starts completely out of nowhere. You're doing something one day, just living your life, and then it's there. As if it's always been there. You feel crazy, like everyone had a discussion you weren't included in and now you need to catch up.

All the shows will have it as a segment. Are we going to war? People are talking about war...I hear people talking. What people? What people are talking about war? It's the biggest open secret that war is now a possibility. It gathers its own momentum.

It gathers speed. It's not will there be war anymore. It's WHEN is the war going to happen? HOW will the war happen? This new war has become a certainty that we all just have to reckon with on our own time. It's not conjecture anymore, it's something different.

There will be speeches. And you'll start to notice poll-tested rhetoric. Nicknames for the enemy. It'll get drilled in your head. Axis of Evil. Axis of Evil. There so it's not here. The catchphrases will become chyrons. Everyone will say them. It'll seep into everyday life.

The people around you will start talking about war as an inevitability, as if it's a good, necessary thing. You'll hear family members and friends. They'll say things you never, ever imagined hearing from them. Even the most rational ones.

You'll hear family members say the most fascist things you could ever imagine. They'll talk casually about genocide. Flippantly they'll laugh about dropping nuclear bombs and wiping nations off the face of the earth. They'll fight you tooth and nail if you speak up.

One day, out of nowhere, you'll get called a traitor. You'll have questioned the war, not even in your loudest voice or even that aggressively. It'll be an offhand question. But someone close to you will literally call you a traitor and you'll realize the circle is shrinking.

Now that the war is a certainty, you'll ask what comes next. What's the plan? What happens AFTER the war? How do you WIN the war? There aren't answers. Everyone just assumes it'll be fine. You'll realize war is a means to an end, a reason for itself.

You'll go out in public. Grab a coffee. Pick up some groceries. See a movie. Something mundane. And you'll realize you're a stranger in your own town. There'll be propaganda somewhere. Scratched on a wall. An overheard conversation. You won't feel like you're home anymore.

The war starts on television. Like a dream you once had. Bombs. Long, glittery packages with stirring music and worshipping shots of weapons. Generals on every channel. Hosts talking about missions and directives without questioning anything or giving any context.

Once the war starts, the criticisms you have will just...dissipate like so much smoke. You'll walk through rooms mumbling to yourself while the TV plays the war in realtime. One battle and one day leads into the next. You'll feel like sleepwalking.

Meanwhile, to keep the war fever going, the government and politicians have to keep everyone terrified. Terror alerts. Rumors of potential terror attacks. Terror. Terror. Terror.

SOME NECESSARY ADVICE:

Keep a mental list of everyone who supported the illegal war. Everyone who supported fascism. When the war turns sour, when it becomes a quagmire, when it goes bad, they'll deny it and society will largely forget what they said.

Remember it.

More advice: Go to rallies. Go to teach ins. Go to poetry readings. Go to anti-war marches and events. Get to know the others. They'll form your community. You'll know some of them the rest of your life. Remind yourself you're not crazy, that you're existing in crazy times.

THE MOST IMPORTANT ADVICE:

Learn. Learn why the war is happening. Learn the history behind it. Learn the history of those who pushed for it. Learn the financial motives for the govt. and the media. Learn. Learn. Learn.

You have to learn because this WILL happen again. It always happens again. History teaches us it's one illegal war after another. Next time, you'll need to be one of the leaders. You'll need to educate those who don't know better. Because there's always a next time.

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Gaming out the scenarios after this highly provocative attack by the US on Iran:

1) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration backs down from escalating the situation, not wanting war either.

2) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration escalates the situation by bombing Iran assets, trying to provoke an Iranian counter attack, but Iran holds tight to make the Trump team look like aggressors and eventual world opinion backs Iran and the US backs down.

3) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration escalates the situation by bombing Iran assets, trying to provoke an Iranian counter attack, which succeeds: Iran attacks Saudi Arabian oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites but things simmer down as neither side wants full out war.

4) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration escalates the situation by bombing Iran assets, trying to provoke an Iranian counter attack, which succeeds: Iran attacks Saudi Arabian oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites. Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The war drags on for years, breaking up Iraq and badly damaging the world economy.

5) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration escalates the situation by bombing Iran assets, trying to provoke an Iranian counter attack, which succeeds: Iran attacks Saudi Arabian oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites. Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and destroys the government and much of Iran. The world economy collapses and years of desperate times ensue.

6) Iran decides not to respond, not wanting to start a war, and the Trump administration escalates the situation by bombing Iran assets, trying to provoke an Iranian counter attack, which succeeds: Iran attacks Saudi Arabian oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites. Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and in the process of sending nuclear missiles, there is confusion with other nuclear armed countries and a nuclear holocaust ensues, wiping out most of humanity.

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7) Iran mounts a vicious overt retaliatory attack on Saudi Arabia oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites but things simmer down as neither side wants full out war.

8) Iran mounts a vicious overt retaliatory attack on Saudi Arabia oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites. Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The war drags on for years, breaking up Iraq and badly damaging the world economy.

9) Iran mounts a vicious overt retaliatory attack on Saudi Arabia oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites.  Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and destroys the government and much of Iran. The world economy collapses and years of desperate times ensue.

10) Iran mounts a vicious overt retaliatory attack on Saudi Arabia oil fields and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The world economy is thrown into disarray, the US is forced to bomb Iran more directly. US bombing does some damage to Tehran and other military sites. Iran then attacks Israel and a full out regional war starts, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and in the process of sending nuclear missiles, there is confusion with other nuclear armed countries and a nuclear holocaust ensues, wiping out most of humanity.

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11) Iran covertly attacks Israel with very damaging terrorist style attacks. Israel is forced to retaliate and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The war drags on for years, breaking up Iraq and badly damaging the world economy.

12)  Iran covertly attacks Israel with very damaging terrorist style attacks. Israel is forced to retaliate and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and destroys the government and much of Iran. The world economy collapses and years of desperate times ensue.

13) Iran covertly attacks Israel with very damaging terrorist style attacks. Israel is forced to retaliate and a full out regional war starts, also involving the US, causing horrendous damage and loss of life. The US then escalates by using nuclear weapons on Iran and in the process of sending nuclear missiles, there is confusion with other nuclear armed countries and a nuclear holocaust ensues, wiping out most of humanity.