What Is the Military Reality in Ukraine?

... We’re seeing lots of imagery of downed plans, shattered tanks, captured tanks, often with detailed information about where and how they were destroyed. But that flood of information often leaves us — even if we don’t know it — unclear on the big picture. 

This thread notes that many of us are getting an incomplete view of the situation in Ukraine because Ukraine’s (and its supporters’) social media efforts have been so effective. The issue here isn’t deception or misinformation, though there’s certainly some of that. It’s that the supporters of Ukraine are doing a very effective job surfacing imagery every time the Ukrainian army scores a tactical victory — destroying a tank, shooting down a plane. 

And we’re seeing much less of the fact that Russia is continuing to make progress on the ground — just slowly. Maybe very slowly. But they are making progress. As the thread I noted puts it, “the view of the war that we are getting from expertly curated UKR IO is giving a lot of folks an impression of not only RUS incompetence but also UKR dominance.” 

The account’s judgment is that if Russia is willing to endure the battlefield casualties and the full weight of the economic sanctions they can probably eventually conquer Ukraine. Whether that’s an accurate prediction is way above my pay grade. It’s hard to get this balance just right. 

I think the point is that the Ukrainian military is wildly over-performing and the Russian military is beset by a level of logistics breakdown that appears to be stunning to the most knowledgable people. But don’t go from the mix of over-performance and under-performance to the idea that Ukraine is winning in purely military terms or that Russia can’t slog it out. 

(snip) 

But one thing that comes up again and again in war reportage out of Ukraine are individuals and regions that were generally more aligned toward Russia doing an about face toward a Ukrainian nationalism that is deeply anti-Russian and generally looking to Europe for protection. Some of this is likely a version of a rally-around-the-flag effect. And while bombs are falling there’s probably little public room for public expressions of anything but antipathy toward Russia. 

But it’s hard to believe the ferocity and intensity of this onslaught won’t be a defining experience for a generation of Ukrainians. War on your own territory will do that. It is another example of something you see in every dimension of this. 

As outsiders to Great Russian nationalism it’s hard for Americans to evaluate the importance that Vladimir Putin and many other Russians attach to reuniting Ukraine with Russia. But even though Russia may still win this war, it’s hard to imagine a greater strategic catastrophe either economically or militarily. 

If Russia conquers Ukraine it seems likely to be a restive and hostile population that will be hard to control or hold. Fighting a domestic insurrection will only further drive Ukraine into eventual economic union and military alliance with the rest of Europe. 

The NordStream 2 gas pipeline project that seemed like an inevitable has already be ditched and the company behind it has filed for bankruptcy. It’s not impossible to imagine a Russian climbdown or withdrawal that would include removing many of the sanctions that are crippling the Russian economy. 

But it’s difficult to imagine a return of the pipeline project any time soon or maybe ever. Meanwhile, far from resetting or upending the post-Cold War security regime in Europe, Putin has put it on steroids. The key NATO member states are pledging dramatic increases in military spending and falling over themselves to reinforce NATO’s eastern frontier. The future that is coming into view is pretty dark for everyone. But it’s a nightmare scenario for Russia. 

Does seem clear that Putin has committed serious war crimes.   Especially the hospital bombing in Mariupol.