Humint Events Online: Stolen Election? What Stolen Election?

Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Stolen Election? What Stolen Election?

Salon.com tries to reassure us touchy lefties that the election wasn't stolen.

However, they STILL can't explain the discrepency in the exit polls. And the exit poll story is the aspect of this election that has always made me most suspicious.

Raw Story did a story, where a mathematician calculates the odds of all the exit polls being wrong about Bush's votes are 1 in 50,000.

Exit polls are our main defense against vote fraud, and guess what? They are telling us there was vote fraud. Moreover, the exit polls predicting a Kerry victory all agreed with various trends before the election, such as that Bush's approval was below 50%, and Bush's average poll numbers were around 48% which typically is the upper threshhold of his support. Pollsters such as John Zogby were predicting a Kerry win. Finally, Bush bucked several "signs" that he would lose:
1) the Redskins losing at home before the election
2) the Nickleodeon kids vote, showing a clear Kerry victory
3) economic statistics that usually spell trouble for the incumbent.

By any logic, Bush should have lost.

(The only wild-card is the Red Sox winning the Wolrd Series, and possibly that did turn the world on end-- but I doubt it. Besides, the last two times the Red Sox won the World Series in an election year, in 1912 and 1916, a Democrat was elected president.)

The major problem we have for uncovering the fraud is that it's not clear how the fraud was done.

My guess is that the fraud was most likely committed at the county level, by either rigged vote-counting machines or by Republican county election officials not tabulating Kerry votes properly.

Unfortunately, despite public outcry, it seems highly likely this story will simply fade away.

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